Charts / Economy
Ethiopia leads Africa's growth with a 9.2% GDP forecast for 2026, says the IMF
The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects nine African economies to grow 5.9% or faster in 2026, led by Ethiopia at 9.2%.
Updated October 2026 · Data year 2026 (IMF forecast); AfDB continental average 2026 projection from the 2025 report
Figure 1
The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects nine African economies to grow 5.9% or faster in 2026, led by Ethiopia at 9.2%.
9.2%
Ethiopia · % real GDP growth
Source: International Monetary Fund, African Development Bank · 2026 (IMF forecast); AfDB continental average 2026 projection from the 2025 report · Bars are IMF World Economic Outlook figures for 2026 (a forecast, not an outturn), from the latest WEO vintage (October 2026), read from each country's IMF At a Glance page. The reference bar is not an IMF figure. It is AfDB's Africa-wide average of 4.4% projected for 2026, taken from the Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook 2025, so it rests on a different source and an earlier 2025 vintage. Guinea's rise is driven by mining.
The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook puts Ethiopia top among African economies, with real GDP forecast to grow 9.2% in 2026 [S1]. Guinea (8.7%), Uganda (7.5%), Rwanda (7.2%), Benin (7.0%), Niger and Libya (6.7% each), Cote d'Ivoire (6.2%) and Tanzania (5.9%) follow [S1][S2]. All comfortably beat AfDB's Africa-wide average of 4.4% for 2026 [S3]. The honest caveat is that these are forecasts, not results, and several are fragile. Guinea's 8.7% leans heavily on mining output, and Ethiopia's national-accounts figures are seen by some analysts as optimistic.
Takeaways
- Ethiopia tops the IMF's list at 9.2% projected growth for 2026
- Nine African economies are forecast to grow at least 5.9% in 2026
- All nine beat AfDB's 4.4% continental average for 2026
- These are forecasts, not results, and Guinea's 8.7% leans heavily on mining
Sources
- TIER A International Monetary Fund, Country 'At a Glance' pages, 2026 Projected Real GDP (% Change), latest WEO (October 2026) (October 2026). https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ETH
2026 forecasts (unasterisked): Ethiopia 9.2, Guinea 8.7, Benin 7.0, Cote d'Ivoire 6.2; carries the headline figure - TIER A International Monetary Fund, Country 'At a Glance' pages, 2026 Projected Real GDP (% Change), latest WEO (October 2026) (October 2026). https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/UGA
2026 forecasts (unasterisked): Uganda 7.5, Rwanda 7.2, Niger 6.7, Libya 6.7, Tanzania 5.9 - TIER A African Development Bank, Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook 2025 (AfDB press release) (2025). https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/press-releases/african-development-bank-new-report-highlights-africas-strengthening-economic-growth-amid-global-challenges-80967
Africa-wide average real GDP growth projected at 4.4% for 2026 (4.1% in 2025); used only for the reference line